RCEP – a powerful geopolitical instrument of ASEAN

ASEAN – the association of Southeast Asian states – was founded in Bangkok in 1967 with the aim of promoting economic, political, and cultural cooperation in the region and creating a common market. Today, the association comprises eleven member states: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia. Most recently, Timor-Leste was admitted as the eleventh country at the ASEAN summit in Malaysia at the end of October. The member states are now home to almost 680 million people.

The region is considered exceptionally precarious in terms of security and geopolitics: Here, the interests and power ambitions of ASEAN's two largest trading partners – China and the USA – directly collide. Furthermore, a third of all commercial container ships use routes through Southeast Asia. Unlike during the Cold War, however, ASEAN states are not pursuing a classic "non-alignment" strategy, but increasingly a strategy of multipolar alignment. This represents a significant shift away from an ideological orientation towards a pragmatic, interest-based engagement. In practical terms, this means maintaining relationships with China as well as with the USA, the EU, and other actors. Figures from 2024 illustrate this: ASEAN trade with China increased by around 15 percent, while trade with the USA rose by 12 percent and remained stable at a remarkable €259 billion with the EU – making ASEAN the EU's third-largest non-European trading partner.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is the world's largest free trade agreement, which entered into force in 2022 and includes not only the ASEAN member states but also China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. With their approximately 2.2 billion people, the member states account for roughly 30 percent of global GDP. This agreement is also China's first multilateral free trade agreement, as the country had previously favored bilateral agreements. However, the RCEP was initiated by the ASEAN states themselves – not, as is widely assumed, by China. With the "ASEAN centrality" principle, China aimed to secure its central role in the regional architecture and increase its geopolitical resilience. Above all, the agreement also served to harmonize and deepen the numerous bilateral free trade agreements that existed in the Pacific region at the time.

Even though China is the most important player in the RCEP, this agreement establishes a certain economic balance between China and Japan, Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. The cross-bloc nature of the agreement, between China and the countries of the Global South and the more Western-oriented member states like Australia and Japan, is noteworthy. RCEP can be seen as Asia's answer to the failed TTIP trade agreement with the US and also serves ASEAN countries as a tool to strengthen their economic resilience against US policy. Current figures demonstrate the necessity of this: Although the ASEAN region is generally considered to have strong growth, forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have recently been lowered from 4.7 to 4.3 percent, primarily due to US tariffs; the US avoided negotiating a major deal with the strong ASEAN as a whole and instead negotiated bilateral tariff agreements.

In summary, for the ASEAN states, RCEP represents an effective trade and geopolitical instrument for them to act effectively on the world stage together with the powerhouse China, without having to accept excessive Chinese dominance within the free trade area. Geopoliticians argue that through RCEP, ASEAN does not absorb China's geopolitical power, but rather channels it to its own interests.

Our geopolitics event in Erfurt on December 4th, featuring expert Ralf Schuster, will delve deeper into this topic. Further information about the event, as well as free registration, can be found on the event website .